News and economic event analysis disclaimer: This fundamental report is not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest, it is educational and general information only. Don’t blindly buy and sell the markets/products discussed in this article, do your own research and be aware of the risks and rewards.
GBP Main Focus This Week:
- Economic Data Type: Gross Domestic Product
- Server Time: 8.30, Monday
- Quick view: Britain has transformed the production of GDP figures to a monthly base last year. The new system helps monitor economic performance for the second quarter of 2019. GDP reading contracted 0.1% in March and is expected to remain on the same reading for April.
- Economic Data Type: Average Earnings Index
- Server Time: 8.30, Tuesday
- Quick view: Report reading in the last month was quite mixed but surprising when the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. The average income index is expected to decline this year’s report lower than the previous month’s decline.
Quick View: Dovish
- 9 members of the Bank of England voted to maintain interest rates in the UK at 0.75%.
- The next BOE meeting is on 20 June 2019.
- The Bank of England’s economic data focuses on Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index, and Unemployment.
- The Bank of England says that interest rate hikes will be gradual and limited due to continued concern about Brexit.
Main Economics Data of BOE
- Gross domestic product in the United Kingdom expanded at 1.8% in the first quarter of 2019, up from 1.4% in the previous period.
- The UK unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in the first quarter of 2019, the lowest level since October to December 1974 and slightly below the market expectation of 3.9%.
- The annual inflation rate of the United Kingdom rose to 2.1% in April 2019 from 1.9% in the previous month but below market expectations of 2.2%.
Expected Bias: GBP Bearish
- The UK jobless data shows that the quarterly pay growth for the end of March is lower than expected.
- The inflation rate in the UK comes under market expectations.
- British Prime Minister Theresa May, who announced his resignation in June after failing to break the deadlock on his support for his Brexit plan over the years.
- Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden noted that Britain’s economy is expected to be less than the BOE forecast earlier this month as Brexit’s uncertainty has weakened investment and productivity.
- Manufacturing output is expected to decline due to weakness in the manufacturing PMI survey.